Meanwhile the Golden Globes have been given out, but I still will comment on the outcome later, together with the outcome of today then.
Because today is Oscar nomination "morning" (well, it will be afternoon where I live, hence the quotation marks.
Predicting the winners would be easy in the six categories I really care to think about. There is really only one real question mark, which is Best Actor. I can perceive both Michael Keaton and Eddie Redmayne as the most likely winner.
This year's Golden Globe winners for Best Actor - Comedy/Musical and Best Actor - Drama (pictured above) both seem to have a really good shot at the Oscar.
Predicting the nominees seems a lot tougher, at least if you don't want to go with the most likely and unimaginative lineups by default for the acting categories. I hate to go with these, though it seems between 1-3 of them always turn out like this in the end.
So without anymore rambling, here are my predictions. I will honour my guesses who will and won't translate to the Oscars that I included in my Globe predictions, though in some cases I think otherwise. I will add a small note when that's the case.
Director
Alejandro González Iñarritu - Birdman
Richard Linklater - Boyhood
David Fincher - Gone Girl
Ava DuVernay - Selma
James Marsh - The Theory of Everything
(I would actually really rather go with Wes Anderson for "The Grand Budapest Hotel" than with Fincher, but I used to predict Fincher)
Actress
Marion Cotillard - Two Days and One Night
Felicity Jones - The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore - Still Alice
Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon - Wild
(the unimaginative lineup would be Jennifer Aniston instead of Marion Cotillard)
Actor
Benedict Cumberbatch - The Imitation Game
Ralph Fiennes - Grand Budapest Hotel
Michael Keaton - Birdman
David Oyelowo - Selma
Eddie Redmayne - Theory of Everything
(there is not really an unimaginative lineup here, only Cumberbatch, Keaton and Redmayne seem sure things. The most noteable lineup would be Steve Carrell for Foxcatcher instead of Fiennes, becase then the lineup would be only first-time nominees. Has this ever happened in this category before? My lineup is honoring my prediction that Jake Gyllenhaal will not be in the mix, but from today's point of view I think that's possible, but it's also very possible that he will place instead of Fiennes or Oyelowo. I kind of wish I could predict Bill Murray for "St. Vincent", as I read somewhere it's his best performance to date, but als he doesn't seem to have any "traction" as they call it...)
Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin - Inherent Vice
Ethan Hawkie - Boyhood
Edward Norton - Birdman
Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons - Whiplash
(the unimaginative lineup would be Robert Duvall instead of Josh Brolin)
Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
Jessica Chastian - A Most Violent Year
Carrie Coon - Gone Girl
Keira Knightley - The Imitation Game
Emma Stone - Birdman
(the unimaginative lineup would be Meryl Streep for "Into the Woods"instead of Carrie Coon. I'm most confident this will happen, but it would be no fun to predict. Jessica Chastain actually seems more vulnerable than Meryl Streep, but it seems nobody really likes "Into the Woods", and a surprise "snub" for Meryl would reflect that.)
Picture (I predict 7 nominees, with 3 more)
Birdman
Boyhood
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
(Whiplash if there are 8 nominees)
(Foxcatcher if 9)
(Wild if 10, because why the hell not)
So let's see how well I do. Probably badly, but I really hope they don't go with the unimaginative lineups everybody expects everywhere, this is always so boring. *yawn*
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